Energy and electricity total control program clearly divided into 5 regions across the country

It was learned from the local Development and Reform Commission that the National Energy Administration has tentatively put forward a plan for total energy consumption control. The details need further discussion.

An official of the above-mentioned local reform commission introduced that in controlling the target, it is necessary to control the total amount of energy consumption, but also to control the total amount of electricity consumption; in the index decomposition, the country will be divided into 5 types of regions, each corresponding to Different energy consumption growth rate; in the assessment, follow the principle of pre-determined quantitative.

“We support this practice, but now we have constraints on energy efficiency indicators. We must consider the actual affordability of localities when setting aggregate goals, and we must gradually and progressively ensure that we do not have too much impact on the local economy and people’s lives.” Local Economic and Information Commission officials expressed to this newspaper.

The reporter was informed that the National Energy Administration has completed seminars in five areas of the country and solicited local opinions.

Total energy and total electricity use "double control"

There are multiple versions of the target value of total energy consumption control. According to Qi Wei, director of the Climate Change Policy Research Center at Tsinghua University, the total primary energy consumption in 2010 was 3.25 billion tons of standard coal, which is an annual average of 7% GDP growth rate and 16% energy saving target set by the government. , then the country's total energy consumption by 2015 is about 3.83 billion tons.

However, since the growth rate of GDP may exceed 7%, the total energy consumption may exceed 3.83 billion tons. The aforementioned officials from the local development and reform commission analyzed the newspaper. “According to experts, the 12th five-year GDP growth rate may reach about 8.5%, then the corresponding total energy consumption is 4.1 billion tons of standard coal.”

“Under this target, the average annual growth rate of energy in the next five years is 4.8%, and the energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.56%.” Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, analyzed that “no matter how many goals are finalized, there is one The problem cannot be avoided, that is, our energy statistics are far from keeping up, not only lagging behind the actual needs, but there are also some untrue circumstances."

According to officials at the aforementioned local committee, the total national energy consumption of the country in 2010 was 3.25 billion tons, but in fact the data summed up across the country is far more than that, and there is an additional 7.8 billion tons, “this and GDP. The problem with statistics is the same."

In response, officials of the above-mentioned local reform commission revealed that the National Development and Reform Commission has proposed measures to control the total amount of energy consumption while also controlling the "double-control" plan for electricity consumption. The reason is that in the statistical data of energy consumption, the amount of electricity Consumer data is the most accurate and difficult to counterfeit.

A senior energy research expert's calculations show that under the condition of GDP growth rate of 8.5%, the elasticity coefficient of electricity is about 1%, and the corresponding total electricity consumption is about 6.3 trillion kWh.

The preliminary determination of the decomposition and assessment methods was informed that the National Development and Reform Commission has initially formulated a method for the decomposition and assessment of total energy consumption.

According to the officials of the local development and reform commission mentioned above, the method of decomposition is to verify the base number, decompose the increments, that is, to verify the energy consumption bases of the country and each place, and then decompose the newly increased amount of energy into the local area.

“The state first classifies 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions into five categories based on various factors such as the level of GDP development, industrial structure, fiscal revenue, energy structure, energy efficiency indicators, and new energy development levels. Each category defines a suitable energy source. The growth rate of consumption, said the officials of the aforesaid local development and reform commission.

He further pointed out that the indicators for energy growth in these five regions should be further connected with the localities. The end result is that each region is a different energy consumption growth rate. "Specifically, there are three principles to follow when linking, that is, energy The elasticity coefficient, growth rate, and growth level of consumption and power consumption are all lower than those during the 11th-five-year period. This also means that the determination of this indicator is a process of repeated communication between the central and local governments.

It is understood that the state has fully taken into account the differences in various areas when decomposing indicators, and all regions will assume the responsibility of “common but differentiated”, that is, the energy consumption and electricity consumption in the eastern region will decrease compared with the 11th five-year plan. Central China can At the same level, the western region can appropriately increase some of them to ensure fair distribution.

The decomposition of the assessment mechanism is even more noticeable. According to an analysis by the above-mentioned local officials of the Credit Suisse Committee, “The desire for local economic development is still very strong, and the 8.5% growth rate is still likely to be broken. However, if the energy-saving target is determined, then the total amount of local energy will be limited. This means that the growth rate of local GDP has been framed, and this will inevitably be opposed by local governments. If this policy is forced to implement, there will be many issues in the energy base.

Therefore, he suggested that the state should implement this system step by step, not one step. According to the newspaper’s understanding, the National Development and Reform Commission has basically adopted local recommendations or will implement a pre-determined and quantitative assessment on the assessment of total energy consumption.

“The so-called qualitative assessment is to see whether there is a plan for controlling energy consumption at the local level, establish a corresponding working mechanism, and take practical and effective measures.” The aforementioned local officials of the Economic and Credit Commission explained that “the so-called quantitative constraints will be more direct, that is, You set an indicator to see if you can finish."

Prior to this, the Planning Division of the National Energy Administration, Chang Bingbing, publicly stated that in the assessment mechanism, it will also “open up a hole” for local governments to reflect the policy of encouraging renewable energy and energy conservation, and they are all located in hydropower, Wind Power, Solar Energy and energy. The new energy consumption of comprehensive utilization will be deducted from the assessment of energy saving and emission reduction targets.

Local officials also suggested that the control of total energy consumption is not an easy task. It also requires a series of supporting measures, such as how to match this policy with climate change policies, how the energy statistics system can be further improved, and whether it can be implemented in terms of means. Explore more legal and marketing tools.

For the final point, Lin Boqiang suggested that the state should vigorously implement an energy conservation assessment and review system during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. This is a good starting point for controlling total energy consumption so as to eliminate unnecessary and unreasonable energy consumption. .