Since 2005, the LED industry has been widely used in mobile phones, display screens and other markets. In 2008, it was catalyzed by the NoteBook-mini backlight application, and quickly entered various backlight applications, such as NB, Moniotor, TV, etc., and accelerated the LED industry. The rapid growth of scale has accelerated the progress of technology and the decline of prices. It has become a possibility for LEDs to enter the field of lighting. Especially in 2011, affected by the European economic environment, the prices of various LED products are accelerating, and their prices are compared with traditional lighting. The price of lighting products is approaching, accelerating the application of LEDs in the field of lighting.
In the future, the penetration of various types of backlights will continue to increase, especially in the medium and large-size backlights of Monitor, TV and the emerging fields of Pad, etc. The penetration and quantity will maintain a high growth rate; in the field of lighting, with the scale and industry support gradually improved. The overall efficiency of LEDs will increase, the terminal price of LED lighting products will continue to decline, and the penetration speed will also accelerate. The overall output value of LED industry will continue to grow.
It is expected that the LED backlight market will remain a major contributor in 2013.
From the terminal point of view, the ability of the backlight application field to grow in 2013 is mainly TV and Pad. Among them, TV's growth drivers are mainly in the following aspects: First, the continuous penetration of the backlight field. According to the relevant research institutions, the penetration ratio will be from 70% in 2012 to over 90% in 2013; the second is Large-scale terminal shipments will continue to increase, and the growth rate is expected to be 5%-10% in 2013, which is expected to be close to 10%. Third, from emerging markets, emerging markets including China are expected to grow by about 15%. It shows that the market growth rate in emerging regions is the main driving force for growth. The fourth is that with the changes in consumption habits, the average size of TVs is getting larger and larger. According to research, TV has an average size of 34.5 inches (diagonal) in 2011, and is expected to reach 36.5 inches (diagonal) by 2013. As the size is larger, the number of LEDs used will increase relatively. Therefore, as the size is larger, the average number of demand increases, which can effectively offset the decrease in the number of LEDs used.
On the whole, the increase in penetration rate, the high growth of the regional market, and the increase in the proportion of localized purchases of backlights in China's panel industry, it is expected that the LED backlight market in China will still have a growth rate of 30%-40% in 2013. It is expected that the stimulus of the policy is expected to reach 40% growth.
The lighting market is expected to continue in 2013
In terms of integrated lighting application market, the average annual growth rate in 2011-2016 is 20%, mainly including alternative lighting, architectural lighting, retail lighting, commercial lighting, entertainment lighting, security lighting, grating lighting, portable lighting, residential lighting, outdoor Lighting, etc., in which alternative lighting, architectural lighting, retail lighting, commercial lighting growth rate Jiang Chao in the industry average growth rate, 2011-2016 compound growth rate is expected to be more than 20%, retail lighting, commercial lighting, architectural lighting The average annual growth rate is 48%, 23%, and 27%. In terms of proportion, commercial lighting accounted for the largest proportion in 2012, about 30% to 40%, followed by architectural lighting, portable lighting, and alternative lighting, which accounted for 10%-20%. It is expected that commercial lighting will remain in 2013. The largest, the proportion is still 30 to 40%, other lighting areas have changed, but the overall will not be too big. With the improvement of LED technology and the continuous decline of prices in 2014-2015, it is expected that the proportion of applications using LEDs will change, but the main areas of adoption will not change much.
It is expected that the policy will remain a major driver in 2013.
From a global perspective, the elimination of incandescent lamps has entered a critical period. Since 2012-2013, 60-75W incandescent lamps have entered the accelerated phase-out phase, and the influencing factors are far greater than the elimination of incandescent lamps above 75w (40-75W). The proportion of incandescent lamps is expected to be around 70%; in addition, due to the impact of the Japanese 311 earthquake, the global denuclearization process accelerates the elimination of incandescent lamps and the replacement of new light sources. From a point of view, the major countries and regions that have been eliminated by incandescent lamps in 2013 will ban the 75w, 60w, 40w phase-out window, from the coverage of the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, the United Kingdom, Australia, the European Union, Japan, South Korea. China and other places have entered the prohibition and elimination period of incandescent lamps. Therefore, it will greatly stimulate the replacement and use of new light sources, and accelerate the promotion and use of LED lighting.
From the LED development plans of various countries, the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, China, etc. have proposed a time schedule for the replacement rate of LED lighting products, of which South Korea and Japan are particularly active. South Korea proposed that the government office lighting LED replacement rate in 2012 is 30. %, in 2015, ensure that LED lighting products enter the general lighting market of 30%; Japan proposes that the replacement ratio of LED lighting in 2015 is 50%, the replacement rate of LED lighting products in 2020 is 100%, and the usage of LED lighting in 2030 is 100%. LED undergoes product promotion, certification, and gradual revision and improvement of standards in 2010-2012. It will enter a critical period in 2013, and the promotion of policies will be a strong guarantee for the realization of the 2015 target.
From the mainland point of view, since October 2011, the "China's phase-out plan for the phase-out of incandescent lamps" was issued. In November, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Organizing the 2012 Annual Financial Subsidy for the Promotion of Semiconductor Lighting Industry", May 2012. The State Council proposed subsidies for energy-saving appliances in the 12th Five-Year Plan of the National Basic Service System, mainly for TV and lighting products, of which 2.2 billion are mainly for subsidies for lighting products. At the provincial and municipal levels, Guangdong, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, and Shandong are currently present. There are related plans in other places. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the promotion and implementation of LED investment and lighting applications will be increased. It is expected that the market scale will be more than 10 billion. At the local level, nearly 30 cities have introduced relevant promotion and subsidy programs, mainly accelerating urban road lighting, public lighting, architectural lighting, etc., including Guangzhou, Dongguan, Huizhou, Foshan, Qingdao, Nanchang, Ningbo, Weifang, Yangzhou, Baoding, etc. It is more active, and it is estimated that the investment scale of each place is above 1 billion.
Judging from the implementation schedule, the results of the central government's bidding in October 2012 were announced as landmark events, stimulating the provinces and cities to refer to the central tendering format, accelerating the promotion and implementation of LED lighting, which has recently been reflected in Qingyuan, Dongguan, Guangdong. Zhuhai, Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway and other government public lighting tenders more announcements, the overall volume of government tendering projects will be reflected in 2013, the company's performance is also reflected in 2013, 2013 or LED policy real implementation year.
The market with high electricity prices starts faster, and the market with longer lighting time starts faster.
The replacement of traditional light sources by LED lighting is mainly subject to price, light efficiency, lighting time, and comprehensive cost considerations. In fact, it is mainly due to the investment recovery cycle and scale. From the perspective of the type of lighting application, the current lighting is mainly used in general lighting, commercial lighting, chain lighting, factory lighting and so on.
The main difference from each application field is that the first is the length of lighting time, and the second is the size of the unit batch. From the lighting time point of view, general lighting is generally 5-6 hours / day, the shortest, followed by commercial lighting (comprehensive shopping malls, architectural lighting, department stores, etc.), supermarket chain lighting (Family, Rosen, 7-11, Luenhua, Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Suning, etc.), factory lighting (semiconductor industry, LCD panel industry, precision processing industry, PV industry, etc. are mostly 24-hour lighting), and its lighting time is gradually increasing; from the perspective of replacement scale, home lighting is not good 100 lights/home, but the number of lighting in a single store is expected to be several times that of home lighting. Chain lighting, factory lighting, etc. can directly generate economic benefits.
From the length of lighting time, factory lighting is expected to recover costs in about half a year, chain lighting is expected to be around 1 year, commercial lighting is expected to be around 1.5 years, and home lighting is about 2 years. Therefore, combined with the scale effect factory and chain lighting replacement will be stronger, so we believe that LED lighting must first replace and penetrate in the field of factory lighting and chain lighting, commercial lighting, and finally home lighting.
Considering the urgency of replacement from the perspective of electricity price, assuming 0.5 yuan/kwh, 0.7 yuan/kwh, 1 yuan/kwh, 1.5 yuan kwh, 2 yuan/kwh, respectively, in the general lighting field, commercial lighting field, chain lighting, In terms of factory lighting, the higher the electricity price, the shorter the investment recovery cycle, and the investment cycle of the highest and lowest grades in the same application area is four times different. Therefore, the western countries with high electricity prices are more motivated in the promotion and replacement of LED lighting. . According to the comparison of electricity prices in various regions of the world, the electricity prices of European countries and regions are relatively high, such as Germany, Spain, Italy, etc. In addition, the electricity prices in Australia and Japan are also higher. Therefore, LED lighting penetration is faster and more willing to be implemented in countries and regions with relatively higher electricity prices.
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