At the 2016 Infocomm show in the United States, the most outstanding display technology is the small-pitch LED screen. Not only domestic giants Zhou Ming, Liard vigorously compete for favor, Samsung, Sony, NEC and other global engineering display giants have also joined in. So how do small-pitch LEDs attract such giants? The answer is naturally an unprecedented development opportunity for the small-pitch LED market.
Demand side model: small pitch LEDs have a natural advantage
In the large-screen display system, what are the key technical standards? The first is the gap, whether it is DLP rear projection splicing wall, LCD splicing wall, can not be compared with small-pitch LED. The latter is a natural, integrated product with no significant gaps. The second is the display effect of brightness, contrast, etc. of the screen. In this regard, the small pitch LED screen is significantly superior to the general engineering projection edge fusion product. The third is the product implementation cost. Compared with DLP splicing and high-end engineering projection products, the cost of small-pitch LEDs is in the same order of magnitude, but at a higher position. However, the price of small-pitch LED screens has fallen faster than competitive products.
It is these advantages that have determined the "popularity" of small-pitch LED screens in the engineering display industry. However, the comparison between simple and competing products does not explain how broad the potential market demand for small-pitch LED screens is.
On the one hand, small-pitch LED screens are not new "technical trends." Since the birth of the LED display, the process of constantly pursuing smaller spacing has continued. This is not only the basic needs of the current popular indoor applications, but also the basic technical pursuit of all outdoor screens. In other words, as long as the cost is appropriate, all LED display systems have a tendency to be continuously spaced.
On the other hand, the display performance of the small-pitch LED screen is excellent, and it can meet the requirements of color, brightness, contrast and the like in movies and home televisions. If small-pitch LED screens can effectively control costs, their cost-sensitive markets such as home, business, and education are not difficult to open. At the same time, the small-pitch LED screen gradually realizes the pitch technology of 1 mm level or even smaller. The phenomenon of image granulation is increasingly solved by smaller pitch and better optical package design. It is also a matter of course to enter the growing cinema screening market. .
Therefore, from the demand side, the small-pitch LED screen not only has unique technical effects in the engineering display market, but also has a broader future market development space. Even the small-pitch LED screen will be a “popular†technology product: this market Maybe not a billion, but a tens of billions of dollars, or even tens of billions of output value - the only requirement for this development hypothesis is "price decline."
Prices continue to fall: small-pitch LED screens must continue to grow
For a display technology, the final size of the market is closely related to its cost control capabilities. Small-pitch LED screens in the commercial display, digital signage, education display, and even the market of home display, all with the ever-decreasing price as the basic value scale. The judgment of the price trend determines the international and domestic industry, and can make great efforts to promote the development of small-pitch LED screens.
In 2014, the domestic small-pitch LED screen industry began to grow in a large scale. The main reason is that the standard product of P1.5 is practical, and the price is further declining. This year, the small-pitch LED screen industry has more than doubled. In 2015, under the background of the severe domestic and international economic situation, the small-pitch LED screen still achieved more than 80% market expansion. At the same time, mainstream products in the market began to upgrade to the P1.2 standard.
In fact, the price drop is the biggest driver in the process of large-scale growth of small-pitch LED screens, in addition to technological progress. So what is the price trend of small-pitch LEDs in the future?
The core cost of small pitch LED screen products depends on the lamp bead product. In 2014-2015, the average market price of the LED lamp industry fell by more than 50%. This trend will inevitably affect the price trend of small-pitch LED display bead. According to the study, from 2014 to 2018, the small-pitch LED lamp bead is likely to remain around 20% per year under the influence of the overall LED lamp bead industry price decline, the small-pitch bead market demand scale expansion, and the increasing maturity of manufacturing technology. The price has dropped. This will at least provide more than 13% cost-end price reduction for small-pitch LED screens.
In the entire LED lamp industry, market saturation and demand reduction exist simultaneously. This is the main reason for the decline in the price of the LED lamp industry.
First, the light efficiency of a single LED bead is constantly increasing, which makes the number of lamp beads and substrate size required to provide the same illumination brightness continuously reduced. In the mobile phone, LCD TV backlight, home and engineering lighting markets, whenever the brightness of the LED bead is increased by 10%, it means that the overall market demand for particle volume measurement is reduced by 10%.
Second, the LCD industry is facing the rapid rise of OLEDs. The former requires LED beading as a backlight, while the latter does not. The development of OLED display technology objectively makes the LED lamp industry gradually lose the huge market of 200 million TV sets, 300 million computers and 2 billion mobile phones per year worldwide.
Third, in the basic lighting market, the life of LED lights is at least 10 times that of traditional energy-saving lamps. If the overall market lighting demand is stable, the actual purchase volume will be reduced a lot after the adoption of LED light source products. This will enable LED luminaires to replace traditional energy-saving lamps, with a very high “alternative†burst in the early stages of the market, followed by a very stable and long market calm period. With the formation of LED lamps for the complete replacement of energy-saving lamps since 2013, the future expectations of the entire market have shown a "saturated situation."
Fourth, the lighting application market, LED lights will face the challenges of OLED lighting technology in the future. From the point of view of the lamp, LED and OLED have no commonality.
Fifth, the LED display market, especially the outdoor display market, is weak. The outdoor LED large screen basically takes the development of urbanization as the main demand increment point, and has the "saturation" of the internal power.
The combination of these factors can be seen that the overall demand for LED lamp beads is not so optimistic: the decline in backlighting is inevitable, and the high-efficiency and high-efficiency products actually lead to a reduction in the total market demand. There must be a calm after the popularization of the lighting market. Period, and will face competing technology competition. These factors are combined, and the LED lamp industry has a trend of at least a medium-term (5-year) continuous price decline from the demand side.
On the other hand, from the supply side, the LED lamp industry has ended the key capacity expansion period, but the increase in manufacturing maturity means the increase in the actual supply capacity of the unit production line. At the same time, technological advances, especially advances in brightness technology, have meant a continuous increase in the scale of production capacity based on total light output.
The combination of supply and demand will inevitably lead to structural overcapacity in the LED lamp industry, and the continuous development of a new application market is the demand of all enterprises. Among them, the small-pitch LED display industry with huge lamp consumption is the best development direction. Beginning in 2015, small-pitch LED lamp beads, such as 1 mm size products, have gradually achieved an alternative development of local supply. In the future, even smaller products will achieve local supply.
The core technical bottleneck of small particle LED lamp bead products is mainly reflected in stability. This requires a process improvement process to be gradually improved. In other words, when the process practice and demand scale of the whole industry reach a certain critical value, the price of small-pitch LED screen bead is expected to achieve a large decline.
The factors affecting the price trend of small-pitch LED screen products are not only the advancement of lamp technology but also the price drop, including the technological progress of the PCB version, the progress of the surface-mounting process and the steady improvement of the yield, and the improvement of the defect repair technology. The decline in the price of IC products has formed a favorable factor for the continuous decline in the price of small-pitch LED screens.
Seize the four innovations, the small pitch LED future unlimited
Among the various factors affecting the market development of small-pitch LED screen products, price is the most critical factor, but it is not the only factor. The small-pitch LED industry is becoming bigger and stronger and requires more and more comprehensive technological innovation.
First, the seam index is still one of the key technical directions for the small-pitch LED screen industry. However, to achieve lower seam indicators, not only the efforts of the terminal enterprises in the small-pitch LED screen industry, but also the upstream lamp market: the smaller-sized lamp-bead products can achieve sufficient maturity, stability and large-scale mass production. The pitch control of the pitch LED screen can continue to evolve. This market law of upstream and downstream linkage determines that the development of smaller pitch LED screens in the production of smaller pitch products will inevitably require more time to run in. For example, the future 0505 lamp bead will be the most important competitive point in the ultra-small-size LED screen industry below 1 mm.
Second, advances in defect rate technology. The density of the bead of the small-pitch LED screen is much higher than that of the general LED application system. In the display application, the tolerance for point defects is lower than that of general lighting. This actually leads to the core of the small-pitch LED screen technology that is around the "point defect". In the preparation of small-pitch LED screens, PCB circuit boards, circuit board punching, solder paste printing, inserts, patch soldering, etc., will significantly affect their defect rate indicators. Through the systematic industrial progress of materials, process, repair technology, etc., to achieve lower cost, smaller product defect probability, higher long-life stability, is the key to gain market recognition for small-pitch LED screens in more fields. .
Third, the development of integrated visual effects technology. This includes, for example, the development of 3D display technology, the development of anti-image granulation optical technology, the development of effective color, brightness and contrast consistency, wide-range adjustment technology, and the development of driver ICs, application functional computing ICs and software design. These are good innovation directions for small-pitch LED screens.
Fourth, in the ultra-small pitch products, the LED screen industry needs innovation in the entire industry chain. Including ultra-fine large-size printed circuit boards, circuit board opening technology, solder paste printing technology and auxiliary metal shadow mask, patch insert process precision, soldering process, ultra-high density heat dissipation design, cabinet assembly precision, screen assembly Accuracy, drive ICs for bright lines, dark line adjustment design, etc. are facing a huge "span", and even that many devices need to "re-development", many process details need long-term exploration. It can be said that ultra-small-pitch LED is the long-term development direction of LED screen, and it is also the industry's difficulty. In addition to the mature LED lamp beads, the ultra-small pitch products are facing technical innovations in other aspects.
In summary, the small-pitch LED screen is still an emerging industry and application products, and the space for technological advancement is still huge. Observing the market development of small-pitch LED screen products in the last three years, we can draw the conclusion that there is an inevitable synchronization between price changes and market growth and advances in mainstream product technology standards. That is, the price of the product fell by 20%, the market size grew by 80%, and the mainstream technical standard jumped by an order of magnitude (the seam index was reduced by 20%). In the future, the industry model of small-pitch LED screen industry, market scale will grow rapidly with the advancement of technology and cost.
It is based on such an industry judgment, especially the small-pitch enterprises in China, such as Zhou Ming and Dongshan Precision, which have gained a lot in the global market. In 2016 INFOCOMM exhibition, Sony, Samsung, Mitsubishi, NEC, Christie, and The international big brands such as Keke or continue to expand the LED screen market with large and small spacing, or overthrow the original industry judgment and resolutely join this emerging field. In a sense, a small-scale LED era that has been shown in a global project has been opened.
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