After the boom of electronic components, the performance is certain

According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website, the electronic components industry maintained a higher profit growth rate, but the growth rate has slowed down. In the first three quarters, cumulative profits of telecommunications equipment, computers, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries increased by 86.1% year-on-year, with an increase of 2.28 times in the first quarter, 1.03 times in the second quarter, and 35.5% in the third quarter. After entering the post-prosperity era, investors' investment in the electronic components industry has changed, and in particular the decisive growth in performance has become the key to investment in the fourth quarter. In the second and third quarters, 23.96% of listed companies in the electronic components industry achieved continuous growth in net profit.

Profit continued to grow 23.96%

According to the latest statistics from the Securities Daily Market Research Center and WIND Information, there are 23 companies that have achieved a net increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of their parent companies in the second and third quarters of this year, accounting for the industry Of the 96 stocks, 23.96% were ranked second in the second and third quarters of all industries. In the first three quarters of this year, the earnings per unit of electronic components and components was 0.1473 yuan, net assets per share was 3.0691 yuan, total operating income per share was 2.0158 yuan, net cash flow from operating activities per share was 0.0988 yuan, and ROE was 5.53%; Based on the closing price on October 29, the dynamic P/E ratio of the electronic components segment was 99.2 times (industry data are weighted average income).

In the second and third quarters, the 23 companies whose net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased month by month were (in order of the second and third quarters quarter-on-quarter increase): Daheng Technology, Dali Technology, Goerre Acoustics, Foshan Lighting, and AVIC. Optoelectronics, Hengdian East Magnetics, Changxin Technology, Xingsen Technology, Ultrasonic Electronics, Lai Bao Gaoke, Zhenhua Technology, Oufei Guang, Silan Micro, Huatian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jinsheng Shares, Fujing Technology, Zhuo Yi Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, China Microelectronics, Xinjialian, Jingyuan Electronics, Dongjing Electronics.

Hing Sen Technology and the stocks before it, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company in the second and third quarters increased by a total of more than 100%. Among them, Daheng Technology is the third quarter of the highest quarterly net profit growth of the stocks, the second quarter of this year, an increase of 124.39%, an increase of 90.40% in the third quarter; subsidiary of China Daheng Group Co., Ltd. holds a 49% stake in mainland futures, The initial investment cost was 49 million yuan, with a profit of 8.005 million yuan in 2009. In the first half of 2010, mainland futures net profit decreased by about 60% year-on-year, and China Daheng Group's net profit contribution decreased by 1.85 million yuan. In the first half of 2000, the net profit of China Daheng Group was 18.4066 million yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the same period of last year.

The second highest ranking is Dali Technology, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 170.17% in the second quarter of this year and a year-on-year growth of 98.06% in the third quarter. In 2010, the third quarterly report disclosed that the 2010 annual net profit is expected to increase by 20%-50% over the same period of last year. The year-on-year net profit was 45.303 million yuan. Explanation of the reasons for the change in performance: The company's business is developing steadily and it is expected that net profit attributable to owners of the parent company in 2010 will increase compared to the same period of the previous year.

The third highest ranking is Goer acoustics. In the second quarter of this year, the growth rate was 167.29% in the first quarter and 29.08% in the third quarter. In 2010, the third quarterly report disclosed that the 2010 net profit is expected to increase by 150% to 180% over the same period of the previous year. The same period last year net profit: 99,877,300 yuan. Reasons for changes in performance: The investment project was put into production, and the implementation of the major customer strategy was successfully implemented, which effectively supported the company's business development. It is expected that the company's business performance will grow rapidly throughout the year.

After the release of production capacity, the performance of the economy was reflected in the fundamentals of the industry. In the third quarter, the electronic components and components industry ended in weak peak season. In August, Taiwan’s electronic data was not good, and passive components, PCB manufacturing, and LED appeared to have decreased month-on-month, which was mainly affected by the inventory adjustment of PC and TFT panels. In September, the market expects that there will be slight recovery in most areas, but in the end LED and passive components, The IC seal test and PCB materials all showed a decrease from the previous month, lower than expected. In the third quarter, the historical average growth rate was 17%. This year, only the touch screen and solar energy maintained strong growth. The chain manufacturing ratio of PCB manufacturing, IC packaging and testing, LED and passive components increased by less than 5%, and the area of ​​TFTs decreased. The tight supply in the third quarter began to ease in many areas. Mainland manufacturers are more dependent on consumer electronics and mobile phones. The overall situation may be slightly better than Taiwanese manufacturers.

Some analysts said that the electronic components industry will enter the era of boom, and the release of production capacity will become the dominant factor. In 2010, the profit exceeded the historical average level, and companies have increased their efforts to expand production. It is expected that the production capacity will be gradually opened in the second half of the year, which will lead to a gradual return of the economy. It is expected that the industry will show seasonal adjustment at the end of 2010, and the operating rate will decline. Most of the ROEs in the electronic components industry have clearly surpassed the historical average, which has led to the expansion of industry capacity from the beginning of the year and gradually strengthened. It is expected that the release of production capacity and fluctuations in the demand season will make the economy begin to decline from the end of the year. As the current electronic components inventory and demand do not have a major negative impact, the market is generally expected that the industry in 2011 is still better than normal years, but the economy will be lower than in 2010, the overall performance will slow down significantly. It is worth noting that the domestic semiconductor industry will transform its breeding opportunities, and its long-term evolution will form an industry layout similar to that of Taiwan.

Product innovation is the driving force behind the development of the electronic components industry. Tablet PCs (including iPadlike) are the most noteworthy new products in the first half of 2011 and will be accepted more than Netbooks and e-books. Liebherg Hi-Tech who has the opportunity to enter the medium and large size production system deserves special attention. Soft board and HDI are also areas of benefit. The development trend of electronic products is perception and interaction, and their impact remains to be tapped.

According to figures, the market share of smart phones in China will account for 40% of the domestic mobile phone market by 2012, and will benefit the upstream industries such as SIM card encapsulation, electro-acoustic devices, sensor devices, and PCBs; according to forecasts of relevant research institutions, In 2011, the number of IoT-related embedded chips, sensors, and radio frequency “smart objects” may exceed 1 trillion. In addition, smart grids and high-speed rail construction all bring great opportunities to power devices and passive components.

Some analysts said that during the boom period, attention was paid to the strategic emerging industries of electronic components. Among them, low-carbon and IoT fields bred many major technological innovations. These technologies may be subversive to traditional industries, and also mean huge market space in the future. Typical areas include LEDs, power batteries, solar power technology, power semiconductors, and IoT application modules.

Grasping the certainty of growth is a key investment industry. Researchers agree that the current semiconductor industry has shifted from a strong market at the top of the cycle to an aggressive capital expenditure phase, and the industry's boom has begun to decline quarter by quarter. There are several reasons for the following reasons: First, as production continues to increase, the prices of major products such as DRAMs began to drop significantly in June; the inventory levels in the second and third quarters are still at a relatively high level, and the demand pull is not as strong as usual. The demand will be satisfied and will enter the adjustment period. Third, the BB value of semiconductor equipment will continue to remain high above 1.15, and the amount of orders and the volume of shipments will continue to increase, showing a more radical desire for expansion; the fourth and third quarters will be semiconductors. In the traditional peak season, sales revenue for the month of July and August did not increase significantly compared with the second quarter. However, the state of the industry can still continue into the first half of 2011.

However, the era of high growth in the LED industry has started. In 2009-2013, the global compound LED growth rate reached 41%, of which the large-size backlight and lighting applications will become the most important application growth point. At the same time, with the promotion of the iPhone, the availability of the iPad, and the support of Microsoft Windows 7 for touch functionality, it indicates that touch screen applications have entered a period of rapid growth, and the penetration rate of touch panels will grow rapidly.

GF Securities believes that it is necessary to grasp the growth of certain companies. At present, when the global electronics industry has experienced the highest degree of prosperity, the growth status of various sub-sectors has a clear downward trend. The industry itself has the possibility of periodic adjustments, and it is recommended to focus on the emerging areas and stocks of deterministic growth. First, it is expected that growth in performance will be strong, and second, there will be plenty of room for growth in the industry. Focus on Shen Tianma A, Rainbow shares, Changxin Technology, Guangzhou Guoguang, Lai Bao Gaoke, Sunlord Electronics, and National Star Optoelectronics.

Shenyin Wanguo reported that power semiconductors are the basic technologies for low-carbon applications and will continue to grow rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to the infringement of shares in Central, its solar wafer production capacity will rapidly rise from 110MW to early 2011, 500M, MOSFET production is rapidly rising, is expected to enter a profitable state. It is expected that domestic manufacturers will make progress in IGBTs, including Zhonghuan, Silan Micro and Hua Microelectronics.

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