Zhang Xiaofei: Eliminating incandescent lamps is an exaggeration for LED development opportunities

After the introduction of the incandescent lamp elimination plan in Europe and the United States, the decantation of the incandescent lamp in the Chinese market has also entered a countdown. On November 4, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine have issued the "Announcement on the gradual prohibition on the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps" (hereinafter referred to as the "Announcement"). From October 1, 2012, the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps will be phased out in stages according to the power level.

This degree is considered to be LED application lighting – a future that is expected to replace the traditional lighting industry on a large scale. Directly affected by this news, LED concept stocks were spurred by the market, and the increase also rose to the top of the concept sector.

At the same time, the interpretation of the LED industry will usher in a huge development opportunity to start flooding the market, but the reality may not be the case. "The introduction of the incandescent delisting roadmap has been exaggerated for the substantial opportunities brought about by the LED industry." On November 9, Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, bluntly told this newspaper.

According to the above-mentioned ministries and joint "Announcement" rules, China's phase-out plan for the phase-out of incandescent lamps is divided into five stages. The first step is to ban the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 100 watts or more, but this will be from October 1, 2012. It started to be executed, and it has been nearly a year since.

More than this, according to our reporter, the current application of 100 watt incandescent lamps on the market is limited, mainly concentrated in a few public areas such as township areas, industrial and mining sites. “In fact, the number of 100-watt incandescent lamps in use is limited. This part of the market is more sensitive to price, and it is unlikely to accept LED lighting, which is a high-priced product in the short term.” LED lighting manufacturer, Shenzhen Eite Lighting Chairman Feng Jun believes that the substitution effect of LED lighting on the 100-watt incandescent lamp market is actually very small.

According to data from the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, 70% of the current LED lighting applications are concentrated in outdoor LED lighting, most of which are municipal projects. "As a lighting technology using semiconductors, the price of LED lighting projects is high, so in the early stage of the market, government investment is often required to drive demand." Zhang Xiaofei analyzed.

But on the other side of reality, according to this newspaper survey, it is precisely because the current LED outdoor lighting market is too dependent on municipal engineering, it has led to many difficulties. Taking the LED streetlight project as an example, this newspaper interviewed many LED lighting companies in the Pearl River Delta and said: “At present, 80% of LED streetlight projects on the market are at a loss.”

A senior executive of Shenzhen Huasheng Group, which is engaged in the production of LED street lamps, told this newspaper that most of the LED energy-saving renovation projects are municipal projects. The specific operation is often the “top-ranking” project of the local government. “Because the LED streetlight project has a long implementation cycle, the leader The replacement often brings certain uncertainty to the project." A number of LED streetlight companies responsible for the report reflected that in the LED streetlight project, often encounter difficulties.

In this context, EMC mode began to be widely used in LED street lighting projects. The so-called EMC, contract energy management, is a new type of market-oriented energy-saving mechanism. Its essence is an energy-saving business method that pays the full cost of energy-saving projects with reduced energy costs. With the EMC model, buyers can replace new energy-efficient devices at “zero cost” without paying any additional costs.

However, according to the survey of this newspaper, subject to multiple factors, the EMC model in the Chinese LED lighting market is only “looking beautiful”. “Because the EMC model is to use the saved electricity bills, the construction cost of the project is paid in installments. The project cycle is often longer than that of the general project.” The aforementioned Huaying Group executives believe that this is more stressful for LED companies.

Another dilemma is that according to the EMC model, the higher the energy consumption of the original street lamp and the more expensive the electricity cost, the higher the amount of cost saved, and the more construction funds used to offset the LED project. "But the reality in China is that the electricity price is low, which also makes the construction period of the EMC project further lengthened."

According to the newspaper, in the Pearl River Delta region of the LED lighting enterprise gathering area, under the influence of multiple unfavorable factors, LED lighting companies are currently struggling. According to public news from the Shenzhen Semiconductor Lighting Industry Development Promotion Association, there are about 1,300 LED companies in Shenzhen. Since this year, more than 80 LED companies in Shenzhen have quietly closed down or liquidated. Among them, LED lighting company Shenzhen 钧 Duoli Lighting Chairman Mao Guozhen was “missing” due to arrears of 80 million yuan, which caused a lot of shock in the Shenzhen industry.

"The association should still be conservative figures. The number of LED companies that have closed down this year is only at least 100 in Shenzhen." Feng Jun, chairman of Eite Lighting, told this newspaper that in the context of the current LED market in the main market, the LED street lamp industry is in a difficult situation. A number of companies have begun to turn to indoor LED lighting.

It is understood that including Shenzhen Huaying Group, Dongguan Qinshang Optoelectronics (002638) and other companies that have been mainly engaged in LED street lighting, have begun to extend to the LED indoor lighting business. “Indoor projects are different from municipal projects, and they are more sensitive to price.” Feng Jun believes that although the price of LED lighting products has generally dropped by about 30% this year, the acceptance of large-scale commercial markets still exists. Big gap.

In contrast, the market is dominated by incandescent lamps in rural areas, and the price is weaker. "The announcement of the elimination of the incandescent roadmap is more policy-oriented for the LED industry." Many LED lighting companies said frankly, waiting for the "spring" of the LED lighting industry will take time.

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