In October 2010, the cold air-conditioning began to spread the property purchase policy in more than 40 cities. In the second half of the following year, the air-conditioning industry also ended two years of rapid growth and entered the “winter season”.

Wang Zhen real estate regulation, air conditioning industry suffered. The data proves the "interaction" between the two industries.

Since October 2010, most provincial capital cities have started to purchase and the property market has entered the winter. After lagging half a year later, in the second half of 2011, the home appliance market, represented by air conditioners, was in decline. In the 2012 frozen year (from September last year to the end of August this year), the ratio of air-conditioning sales to inventory is about 1:2.

Like all industries, the air-conditioning industry is also looking for new directions. Metropolitan control continues; foreign demand remains sluggish. A number of industry insiders told reporters that instead of expecting a recovery in the property market, it is better to continue to sink to third-tier cities and to transfer commercial property markets.

The new frozen year is cold

From September, the air-conditioning industry entered the 2013 freezing year (September to August). But the head of the business of a compressor factory was frowned. He complained to the "First Financial Daily" that there are at least 11 million to 12 million domestic air conditioners.

“We negotiate with Gree, Midea, Zhigao, Galanz and other air-conditioning giants. First, they have a lot of inventory, and they are not active in purchasing compressors. Second, they need to talk about prices once a month, and they don’t give orders if they don’t cut prices.” Said the minister, Hitachi said. The new air-conditioner compressor plants of Meiji, Mitsubishi, Panasonic and other major new air-conditioner compressors are only operating at 89%. “At this time in the past, we all recruited workers and worked overtime. There is no sense of urgency. Instead, we say to the workers 'take more rest and come back'.”

In July and August, he even did such a thing - to pull the compressor to the door of an air-conditioning plant, and the other party asked, "If you lower the price, you will not lower the price? If you do not lower the price, you will not give it to the warehouse." He had to drop 5 more per unit. ~ 10 yuan. "There is no money to make another drop. Although steel prices have fallen this year, the labor cost has increased by 10% to 15%," he exclaimed.

The days of air conditioning plants are also difficult. "It's not good to do it." The person in charge of a Guangdong air-conditioning plant bluntly said, "The market capacity is declining and it is still in the inventory phase. There is no way."

According to the statistics of Ovid Consulting, after the end of the 2012 freezing year, domestic air-conditioning inventory was 14 million units, which was the second highest in history, second only to 16 million units in the same period of last year. According to the calculation of domestic sales of 50 million units of air conditioners in the 2012 frozen year, inventory accounted for a quarter. The person in charge of the above-mentioned air-conditioning plant estimated that the air-conditioning retail volume in the 2012 frozen year was only 30 to 35 million units. As such, the ratio of air conditioner sales to inventory in the 2012 frozen year is about 1:2.

According to industry practice, the opening of the new freezing year is a great opportunity for the air conditioner factory to set new policies, attracting dealers to make payments, and channeling goods to the channels. However, "This year, the opening of major air-conditioning plants is not very satisfactory." The person in charge of another air-conditioning plant admits that it is not OK to suppress the goods.

Depressed property market spilled home appliances

Obviously, China's home appliance market is entering a period of deep adjustment. In addition to the macroeconomic recession, policies such as “old for new” and “home appliances to the countryside” have enabled consumer spending to advance overdrafts. Real estate regulation is one of the key factors affecting the trend of the home appliance industry.

Since October 2010, the property purchase restriction policy has been rolled out in more than 40 cities, and several provincial capitals and first-tier cities have “moved”. In the second half of 2011, the horsepower of the high-speed home appliance market gradually lost its momentum. The air-conditioning industry has also ended two years of rapid growth and entered the "winter".

According to Li Wenjiang, Chief Analyst of Evergrande, there is at least half a year to a year's cycle from buying a house to paying the floor. From September to October of this year, the property market is very poor. This directly affected the home appliances in the first half of this year. New demand. He estimated that the demand for home appliances in new homes in Guangzhou was reduced by 20,000 units each year after the implementation of the purchase restriction policy.

According to Zhong Yikang's statistics, the cumulative retail volume of China's air-conditioning industry in the first half of this year decreased by 27.14% year-on-year. Aowei Consulting's data also showed that in the first half of 2012, domestic household air-conditioner terminals sold 20.36 million units, a year-on-year drop of 23.3%; sales amounted to 69.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%, a larger-than-expected drop.

From the semi-annual report of the major air-conditioning companies, in the first half of the year, with the exception of Gree and Haier, growth in air-conditioning and parts sales in the first half of the year was 30.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.14%. Zhigao's air-conditioning revenue was 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.9. %; Hisense (Weibo) Kelon revenue of 3.757 billion yuan, down 12.01% year-on-year. However, their net profits have increased year-on-year.

The air-conditioner business in hypermarkets is also not good. Suning Appliance (micro-blog) (002024.SZ) air-conditioning sales in the first half of 5.892 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.57%.

“Air-conditioning sales in Gome and Suning stores in first-tier cities in the first half of the year fell by 30% from the same period last year.” An analyst who has long observed the air-conditioning industry estimated that shipments of air-conditioning plants in the 2012 frozen year fell by 10% to 15%, and the retail volume of terminals declined. 30%.

Another air-conditioning industry observer, Jian Shen, estimated that the 2012 frozen year was 15% lower than the 2011 frozen year, and domestic air-conditioning sales fell from nearly 60 million units to about 50 million units. “The inflection point of the air-conditioning industry has already emerged, and it will enter a stable flood season from a high-growth period.”

In fact, not only air-conditioning, the first half of the domestic refrigerators, washing machines, color TVs and other traditional home appliances have suffered a cold wave, sales dropped substantially. According to Zhong Yikang’s statistics, sales of domestic refrigerators fell 17.17% year-on-year in the first half of this year. Ovid Consulting's data shows that domestic TV sales fell by 9.9% from January to May this year.

In addition to big cities, the home appliance market in some central cities has also seen a depression.

“The rural market is also difficult to do.” Xie Shaoliang, general manager of Hunan Zhengdong Home Appliances Co., Ltd. lamented that due to the economic downturn and real estate regulation, the household appliance market in rural areas in and around Xiangtan this year is not booming. The implementation of the “Home Appliances to the Countryside” policy for several years has overdrawn the rural appliance market. Energy-saving has also raised the unit price of air conditioners. Some energy-saving air conditioners have a minimum of 2,200 yuan per unit. “The rise in air-conditioning prices has also affected some rural needs."

Move to the second and third line and commercial real estate

However, the new round of energy-saving home appliance subsidy policies implemented by the state in June and signs of recovery in the real estate market made the home appliance market see some hope.

Since March of this year, the property market has rebounded under the stimulation of two interest rate cuts and price cuts by developers. According to the data on housing sales prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 3 cities that rose month-on-month in April; in May, the number of cities rose from the ring to 6; in June, this figure increased to 25; in July, , There are 50 cities prices rose. The average residential price in Shanghai in July reached 24,700 yuan per square meter, setting a new record.

At the same time, a purchasing manager of Suning Guangzhou Branch told this newspaper that the home appliance market was slowly picking up in August, and the air conditioner sales unit price and sales volume both picked up.

However, the aforementioned head of the air-conditioning compressor plant believes that whether the market can recover at the end of this year remains to be seen.

Li Wenjiang believes that the rebound in the property market after March this year is only a release of rigid demand, and demand for improved home purchases is still constrained. In 2012, Guangzhou's first-hand residential sales will still be maintained at around 60,000 units, which will be a total reduction of 20,000 units over the previous year.

“As long as the purchase restriction and loan-restricting policies are not relaxed, there will not be much change in the future, and the country’s need to curb investment and speculative housing is a long-term strategy. It is unlikely that there will be changes,” said Li Wenjiang.

Faced with the uncertain future of the forefront, China's home appliance industry has also come to a transitional point.

In the first two years, the company sold 100 billion US dollars worth of sales. In the second half of last year, it began to promote strategic transformation. Fang Hongbo, chairman of Midea Group, stated that we must shift from the pursuit of sales to the pursuit of profits.

Where are the new profit growth points? Li Gefei, deputy general manager of Zhigao Home Air Conditioning's domestic marketing division, believes that there is great potential in the rural market and the 2013 frozen year will continue to improve the sales network in the 3rd and 4th markets.

Han Wei, research director of Ovid Consulting White Goods, also believes that there is still an opportunity in the air-conditioning industry because one household can have more than one air conditioner. At present, the number of air conditioners owned by every 100 households in urban China is over 100, but in rural areas this number is only about 40 units.

Gree also reversed market growth this year by further sinking channels and increasing market share in the 3rd and 4th markets.

Li Wenjiang analyzed that real estate developers are turning to second and third-tier cities and commercial real estate. The home appliance industry can also "appropriate the situation," and move to second and third-tier cities and develop commercial markets.

In fact, the central air-conditioning used in commercial real estate and buildings is becoming a new battleground for air-conditioning companies to dig gold. Dong Mingzhu, chairman and president of Gree Electric, once said that if Gree’s revenue in 2015 is to reach 200 billion yuan, it will rely on central air-conditioning business. Fang Hongbo also said that central air-conditioning will make greater contributions to U.S. revenue and profits.