In 2011, as the market growth was lower than people's expectations, the price of photovoltaic solar battery packs plummeted, which reduced the profits of enterprises. Therefore, this year is a difficult year for many PV solar energy producers.
In 2012, there will be two possible scenarios in the photovoltaic solar energy market. The first situation is that photovoltaic solar energy market is stable and supply and demand are close to balance. In the second case, the PV solar market is still in a similar imbalance between supply and demand in 2011.
Judging from the current generation of photovoltaic solar energy projects, by the end of 2012, the world’s photovoltaic solar power generation will have more than 16GW of crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar energy and 2GW of thin-film photovoltaic solar energy. If this projection is established, the decision to install photovoltaic solar quarterly quantities in 2012 is not how much solar PV solar module manufacturers can produce but how much they can install. This means that the market demand for photovoltaic solar energy is very different from what people expect.
For the first case, the photovoltaic solar market demand and installation volume have increased. This increase in demand for PV solar energy enables manufacturers to complete the installed PV solar installations. In this case, the installed capacity of photovoltaic solar energy will reach 34.5 GW in 2012, which makes the upstream and downstream producers of photovoltaic solar energy production chain believe that the market will have at least short-term growth. The prediction of this situation is based on the following assumption: Since the average selling price of photovoltaic solar modules decreased by approximately 30% in the previous year, the installation price of photovoltaic solar systems will be reduced to the extent that new markets can be opened up. Moreover, even under the policy of reducing economic support, the established market has a reasonable return on profits.
In fact, the response of the established market will greatly increase the installed capacity of photovoltaic solar energy. Only Germany and Italy account for 45% of the world's photovoltaic solar market, indicating that the largest installed PV solar energy is still in Europe. This allows manufacturers enough time to develop other markets, such as North America, especially Asia.
Another result of this situation is that it reduces the average selling price of PV solar modules. This has made some high-cost manufacturers, especially those in the West and Japan that have already established photovoltaic solar energy manufacturers, have enough time to reduce production costs. In addition, the second and third producers in the crystalline silicon production chain and emerging thin-film photovoltaic solar energy producers can adjust the amount of photovoltaic solar installations to market acceptance to recoup the investment funds.
In the second scenario, the outlook for photovoltaic solar producers is not clear. In this case, although the average selling price of photovoltaic solar panels has been reduced, due to the influence of policies, funding bottlenecks and other factors on the downstream solar installers, the photovoltaic solar market demand growth rate is far less than the former situation. The growth rate is fast. According to the Solarbuzz report, in 2012, the PV solar installation volume differed by 9GW. In this way, photovoltaic solar energy producers still face the same challenges in 2012, and even worse.
In these two different situations, the situation of high-cost and low-cost photovoltaic solar manufacturers is quite different.
In the first case, mainland China, Taiwan, and other low-cost manufacturers still have the advantage of high installed capacity, accounting for about 65% of the world's total. However, photovoltaic solar energy manufacturers in the West and Japan have lost market share. Thin film photovoltaic solar energy producers and high crystal silicon conversion companies have a market share of 10% and 5% respectively.
However, under the second scenario, only the low-cost photovoltaic solar energy producers in the first production chain can struggle with the low-demand, low-PV solar average selling price. Because they have a stable end market and abundant financial resources. Under such circumstances, mainland China, Taiwan, and other low-cost manufacturers have the advantage of higher installation capacity, accounting for about 80%. However, PV power producers in the West and Japan will lose even more market share. Thin-film photovoltaic solar energy producers will lose 30% less market share than in the previous year because thin-film photovoltaic solar producers lose their cost and price advantage when faced with the rapidly falling price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar energy. Under such circumstances, the average selling price of photovoltaic solar panels will still decrease at the same pace as the previous year, which will lead to cheaper photovoltaic solar electricity prices, and may also increase the photovoltaic solar energy demand in 2013.
In any case, photovoltaic solar energy manufacturers quickly occupy the downstream installation market and will be the best choice.
In 2012, there will be two possible scenarios in the photovoltaic solar energy market. The first situation is that photovoltaic solar energy market is stable and supply and demand are close to balance. In the second case, the PV solar market is still in a similar imbalance between supply and demand in 2011.
Judging from the current generation of photovoltaic solar energy projects, by the end of 2012, the world’s photovoltaic solar power generation will have more than 16GW of crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar energy and 2GW of thin-film photovoltaic solar energy. If this projection is established, the decision to install photovoltaic solar quarterly quantities in 2012 is not how much solar PV solar module manufacturers can produce but how much they can install. This means that the market demand for photovoltaic solar energy is very different from what people expect.
For the first case, the photovoltaic solar market demand and installation volume have increased. This increase in demand for PV solar energy enables manufacturers to complete the installed PV solar installations. In this case, the installed capacity of photovoltaic solar energy will reach 34.5 GW in 2012, which makes the upstream and downstream producers of photovoltaic solar energy production chain believe that the market will have at least short-term growth. The prediction of this situation is based on the following assumption: Since the average selling price of photovoltaic solar modules decreased by approximately 30% in the previous year, the installation price of photovoltaic solar systems will be reduced to the extent that new markets can be opened up. Moreover, even under the policy of reducing economic support, the established market has a reasonable return on profits.
In fact, the response of the established market will greatly increase the installed capacity of photovoltaic solar energy. Only Germany and Italy account for 45% of the world's photovoltaic solar market, indicating that the largest installed PV solar energy is still in Europe. This allows manufacturers enough time to develop other markets, such as North America, especially Asia.
Another result of this situation is that it reduces the average selling price of PV solar modules. This has made some high-cost manufacturers, especially those in the West and Japan that have already established photovoltaic solar energy manufacturers, have enough time to reduce production costs. In addition, the second and third producers in the crystalline silicon production chain and emerging thin-film photovoltaic solar energy producers can adjust the amount of photovoltaic solar installations to market acceptance to recoup the investment funds.
In the second scenario, the outlook for photovoltaic solar producers is not clear. In this case, although the average selling price of photovoltaic solar panels has been reduced, due to the influence of policies, funding bottlenecks and other factors on the downstream solar installers, the photovoltaic solar market demand growth rate is far less than the former situation. The growth rate is fast. According to the Solarbuzz report, in 2012, the PV solar installation volume differed by 9GW. In this way, photovoltaic solar energy producers still face the same challenges in 2012, and even worse.
In these two different situations, the situation of high-cost and low-cost photovoltaic solar manufacturers is quite different.
In the first case, mainland China, Taiwan, and other low-cost manufacturers still have the advantage of high installed capacity, accounting for about 65% of the world's total. However, photovoltaic solar energy manufacturers in the West and Japan have lost market share. Thin film photovoltaic solar energy producers and high crystal silicon conversion companies have a market share of 10% and 5% respectively.
However, under the second scenario, only the low-cost photovoltaic solar energy producers in the first production chain can struggle with the low-demand, low-PV solar average selling price. Because they have a stable end market and abundant financial resources. Under such circumstances, mainland China, Taiwan, and other low-cost manufacturers have the advantage of higher installation capacity, accounting for about 80%. However, PV power producers in the West and Japan will lose even more market share. Thin-film photovoltaic solar energy producers will lose 30% less market share than in the previous year because thin-film photovoltaic solar producers lose their cost and price advantage when faced with the rapidly falling price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar energy. Under such circumstances, the average selling price of photovoltaic solar panels will still decrease at the same pace as the previous year, which will lead to cheaper photovoltaic solar electricity prices, and may also increase the photovoltaic solar energy demand in 2013.
In any case, photovoltaic solar energy manufacturers quickly occupy the downstream installation market and will be the best choice.
911 Signal Technology Inc. , http://www.911signaleurope.com