The wave of the Internet has promoted continuous changes in transmission network technology. New technologies such as silicon photonics integration, PMD-QPSK, and ultra-low loss optical fiber have completely broken the dilemma of the optical communication industry in the past 10 years.
The halo of "the world's largest 100G network" has not moved around for too long. In April 2013, the Brazilian telecommunications operator TIM completed the bidding and started 100G construction, surpassing China Mobile; subsequently, China Telecom will soon start a 100G bidding with a scale of 2,500 boards, reaching 167% of China Mobile's network.
However, if China Mobile can complete its second and third phases of 100G bidding within the planning period, then the "world's largest" is still China Mobile. After all, the bidding volume of 3,000 and 5,000 blocks has accumulated a scale of nearly 10,000 boards, which is really beyond the reach of other operators.
47% annual growth rate in 100G market
A few days ago, Dell'Oro released the latest forecast report "2013-2017 OpTIcal Forecast Report" pointed out that from 2012 to 2013, 40G global shipment share fell inflection point, 100G began to become the mainstream technology to replace 40G in the market, it is expected that in 2017, WDM / OTN product shipments, 100G will account for more than 60%. From 2013 to 2017, the annual compound growth rate of global 100G shipments was as high as 47%.
Dell'Oro pointed out that from 2010 to the first quarter of 2013, the cumulative global 100G shipments reached 35315 terminals, but in 2013, 100G shipments will reach 53412 terminals, more than 1.5 times the previous cumulative; 2017, 100G Shipment volume will reach 320,000, which is 16 times that of 2012.
The temptation to "enrich these numbers in the company's financial report" has made every company crazy. For example, in Alcar Lucent's financial reports for several consecutive quarters, the continuous profitability of the optical network business is indeed a rare highlight.
Guo Zhonghua introduced that as of now, Alcatel-Lucent has achieved 100G commercial deployment on more than 90 networks in more than 45 countries around the world, maintaining the No. 1 market share; at the same time, in the publicity of Huawei, there are also such Data "Huawei's global 100G commercial projects have exceeded 80, and its overall share has long been ahead."
The "first battle" is still inconclusive. At the end of 2012, Ovum released a report saying that Huawei's cumulative sales have reached the world's first, but Dell'Oro released a report at the same time that Aran still leads the pack. Intentionally or unintentionally, the two giants have been pushed to the cusp of the storm, and the waves have so far remained flat.
However, the public opinion orientation of both sides is not stuck here. At present, Alcatel-Lucent is very much in favor of its latest AON architecture and the 400G system of 28nm process; while Huawei is focusing on promoting its world ’s first second-generation soft decision solution, which can realize 4000 kilometers of powerless relay transmission. Huawei announced that it will first develop 100G OTN technology in the world to achieve 100% full utilization of 100G, leading the industry for 2 years.
Of course, 100G is not just a duel. At present, in addition to the two, the fastest-growing one is the "acquisition master" Cisco, and the king of the IP field has begun to exert force in the transmission system, and it is blockbuster. In addition, Ericsson, Ciena, ZTE and Nuoxi, which acquired Nortel Networks, also acted as surpassers.
100G revolutionizes the transmission network
The 100G market has set off a "vigorous" industry chain, and the technological changes of 100G have made operators start to look forward to the "next generation transport network". An all-round transformation around capacity, management, and fiber optic basic networks is building the next generation transport network.
On June 5, the China Optical Network Seminar was held in Beijing. Wei Leping, director of the China Telecom Technology Committee, pointed out that between 1970 and 2000, the optical communication capacity increased by an average of 78% per year, which was called "ultra-Moore's Law." But after 2000, the growth rate of optical communication rate dropped to 20%, which is no longer brilliant. "In the past ten years or so, optical communication has not produced any technology that has a significant impact. WDM and optical amplifiers are the products of the last century." Wei Leping said "ashamed": "We are all eating our old books."
However, since 1990, the rate of Internet traffic has surged, with an annual growth rate of more than 40%, which has surpassed that of optical communications. "As such calculations, in 2020, the flow exceeds the single fiber capacity limit." Wei Leping called it "capacity crisis", the transmission network needs a breakthrough system technology.
In the industry's view, PMD-QPSK is a breakthrough technology. "In 2003, Bell Labs began to develop 100G technology." Guo Zhonghua introduced that after the advent of the PMD-QPSK modulation method, it unified the rivers and lakes, completely changing the pattern of the previous multiple modulation methods, and truly forming a unified industrial chain for 100G. Laid the "golden period of more than 10 years".
Based on the breakthrough technology of 100G, the industry began experiments with 400G and 1T technologies, and Alang, Huawei, Ericsson, Ciena, and ZTE are at the forefront. Among them, Aaron and Ericsson have already conducted 400G live network pilot, while Aaron has deployed 400G network in FT / Orange.
Wei Leping pointed out the basic characteristics of the new generation transport network: ultra-high-speed links, transparent transmission nodes, and ultra-low-loss optical fiber at the physical layer, and proposed the basic model of China Telecom's next-generation transport network (CT2).
Fiber enterprise thinking is outdated
It can be seen that not only the system manufacturers, but also the next-generation transmission network has put forward new requirements for fiber manufacturers. Wei Leping pointed out: "In the era of super 100G, ultra-low loss fiber must be provided to provide effective support for long-distance transmission." Using ultra-low loss fiber can reduce 3dB cross-segment loss, "equivalent to the system transmission distance can be extended by 100%." ​​Wei Le Ping pointed out that if you can save a system regeneration station, you can save tens of millions of dollars in costs.
In 2012, China Telecom conducted a simulation calculation on the existing network and concluded that the use of low-loss fiber can save the cost of the existing network by 1 billion yuan, about 10%; the use of ultra-low loss fiber can save 2.5 billion yuan, about 20%.
Wei Leping pointed out that low-loss optical fiber has obvious advantages and can be used immediately. In 2013, China Telecom formulated new optical fiber centralized procurement requirements: all G.652 optical fibers in the backbone network will use low-loss optical fibers. "Ultra-low loss optical fiber has more obvious advantages and should be adopted immediately, but the industry chain does not support it."
At present, the mainstream optical fiber of the backbone network is G.652 ordinary optical fiber. Most mainstream optical fiber companies can already provide low-loss optical fiber. However, the only ultra-low loss optical fiber supplier is Corning. The only domestic enterprise that plans to launch ultra-low loss optical fiber is Zhongtian Technology.
"We made a special trip to communicate with domestic fiber optic companies about ultra-low loss optical fiber, but the domestic fiber optic companies are too backward. They are not concerned at all." Wei Leping is quite helpless about this. "Considering the risk of the industry chain, it is recommended to Pilot low-loss optical fibers before expanding applications. "
In addition to optical fibers and optical communication systems, the optical device industry will also usher in changes, and silicon photonic integration technology has become a new favorite.
During the data tsunami, the entire optical communications industry chain was tied to warships and sailed towards the next generation transmission network.
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